"ERG"
Since then, the lake has been
accumulating water for almost 100 years, which is still continuing.
Now the lake is
At first sight, the lake looks calm and smooth.
However, it is a "dragon in sheep's clothing". Water is a "good servant but a bad master".
The area experiences considerable seismic activity,
and scientists fear that part of the right bank may slump into the lake,
creating a huge wave that will top over and possibly breach the natural dam.
Such a wave would create a catastrophic flood downstream along the Bartang, Panj and
If the Usoi Dam breaks, the natural disaster may
hit a few countries, threatening more than six million people inhabiting the
valleys of Rivers Panj and Amu Darya and
The idea that our group is suggesting the following:
We want to urge the world community to take measures aimed at preventing
the possible natural disaster. The implementation of these measures will help
to resolve numerous regional problems, including energy, water, ecologic,
social and humanitarian problems.
Many humanitarian organizations have already attempted to resolve this
problem. Currently, Central Asian governments, as well as the World Bank and
the UN, are monitoring the dam closely, and have proposed gradually lowering
the lake level as a preventive measure.
However, all of them are making efforts separately and uncoordinatedly.
They are in disagreement over many issues - who will fund, what measures need
to be taken etc.
At present, the huge Rogun hydropower station
is under construction at River Vakhsh in
It is expected to have a 330-metre-tall dam and its reservoir to
contain 12.5 billion cu. m. of water which would not reach
The scheme of the Rogun Dam on the Vahsh River in Tajikistan
Nurek Dam on the Vahsh River - it is analogue of the future Rogun Dam
However, the Rogun project, whose construction
was planned during the period of the USSR, is already leading to serious
controversies over the use of transboundary rivers in
Central Asia because a significant part of the water which is supposed to flow
into the lower reaches of River Amu Darya and later into the Aral Sea will be
kept in the Rogun water reservoir.
In addition, Tajikistan's investment of all of its resources, including
funds, into the construction of the Rogun hydropower
station is distracting the country from the problem of Lake Sarez
and postponing its resolution for an uncertain period or, perhaps, for decades.
But the breach of the Usoi Dam or the water overflow
because of landslide may take place during this period, causing catastrophic
consequences for the region as a whole.
We are putting forward the facts proving the need to give more priority
to the problem of The following are the facts: 1. It would take five
to six years to fill the giant Rogun reservoir, thus
reducing water flows down the main arterial rivers. We instead propose using
the water that has accumulated in the 2. There are many
advantages of reducing the water level at 3. 3. Следует отметить, что объём водохранилища, в том числе и, так называемый «мёртвый объем», то есть тот объем воды, который никогда не сливается из водохранилища, меняется от высоты плотины в квадратичной зависимости. То есть, при возможном уменьшении высоты плотины в три раза, «мертвый объем» водохранилища уменьшается в 9 раз ! Так что, при рассмотрении варианта строительства на реке Вахш трёх небольших плотин вместо одной высокой при том же перепаде высот, а, следовательно, и такой же суммарной мощности ГЭС, удастся уменьшить общий «мертвый объём» в 3 раза. 4. The ecological
balance around 5. Even if completed
in time, the Rogun hydroelectric power station is
likely to give electricity to homes in 3-4 years at best, as it will consume
its own power in this initial phase. The capital investment return is,
according to some estimates, expected after 30 years of operation. Filling up
the Rogun reservoir, over many years, also means less
power generation by the cascade of hydro stations on the lower 6. Retargeting the
funds intended for the Rogun project and joint use of
the resources allocated by various institutions to deal with the risk posed by
7. The parallel
development of
8. In case of a possible breach in the Usoy dam, costs to eliminate the consequences of this disaster would be far higher than the construction of the Rogun hydropower station and its future profits. Social and humanitarian consequences would not be easy to assess.
9. The Sarez project would attract more labour resources in Tajikistan because there would be the need to develop infrastructure in underdeveloped regions in Tajikistan (the construction of roads, power lines and other communications) and this would help employment and create jobs, easing social tension.
10. An integrated
approach to solving regional problems; avoiding confrontation over differing
interests. No person, group or single Central Asian country is, however, able to
carry out such a project on its own. It requires the collective and coordinated
efforts of the whole region, including 
Мёртвый объём обычно составляет не менее половины всего объёма водохранилища. Для примера, при полном объёме Нурекского водохранилища около 10.5 млрд. кубметров воды его мёртвый объём составляет чуть менее 6 млрд. кубметров, то есть около 60%.
.
The ERG group is based in Tashkent and has members in Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Russia, the UK, the Czech Republic and the USA. The group staff include well-experienced engineers, designers and journalists and plans to invite TV channels, including the National Geographic, the BBC and Discovery to cooperate over the project. Specifically, the plan is to make a documentary on the project jointly with one of the TV Channels.
May 23, 2009
The attachments include video files, photos and schemes of the following events:
Malpasset arch dam disaster (
421 people died. The damage amounted to a total of $68 million
The Vajont disaster (
The landslide in Vajont reservoir, numbers of villages destroyed, about 2.5 th people died.
The Teton dyke breach (
The town of
Mud slide and flood (Venezuela) - 1999
The town of Vargas was destroyed, 30,000 people died as a result and the damage
cost was estimated at 3.2bn dollars
Flood in Krasnodar Territory (Russia) - 2002
several people died
Tsunami in Indonesia, Taiwan and Sri-Lanka - 2004
About 400,000 people died, the damage cost over 10bn dollars
Flood in St. Georgia (Utah, the USA) - 2005
Dozens of houses destroyed, the damage cost at 150m dollars
Hurricane "Katrina" (Louisiana, the USA) - 2005
New Orleans city was flooded, thousands houses destroyed, about 2000 people died, the damaged estimated at 100 bn dollars
Dam crashed in Indonezia - 2009
60 people died, the damage cost over 85m dollars
The forecast of flood if the Usoi Dam breaks or water
tops the dam - the year is unknown.
The countries that will be in the possible
disaster area include
Video clips used taken from
National Geographic, Wild, Discovery, Zvezda, NTV, Uzbekiston, RBC, MIR
Pictures borrowed from the following sources and websites:
NASA, Google, Ferghana.ru, Wikipedia,
www.pamir.ucoz.com, http://www.land-man.net